[Donald Trump] is so unpredictable that foreigners are going to look around and say "boy, we've got to head for the safe havens." And one of the safe havens is Treasurys and [another is] the dollar.
Gary ShillingWe're in a pretty tumultuous world, and there's a lot of uncertainty. Treasurys are where people go as one of the few safe havens in the world.
Gary ShillingOne of the things I think is very likely is that with the prospects of robust fiscal stimulus in response to voters mad as hell, the Fed is going to be in there with helicopter money. In other words, they're going to be buying whatever the Treasury issues. They're not going to, in effect, advocate strong fiscal stimulus and then not finance it. And that's helicopter money.
Gary ShillingI said earlier [2015] year that I thought we'd get to 10 or 20 bucks [per barrel ] because that's the marginal cost, and when you're in a price war, it's the marginal cost that determines the price.It is a price war because basically the OPEC reason did not cut production in their November 2014 meeting was that they got tired of cutting production and having American frackers and Russians et cetera grab market share.
Gary ShillingTreasurys, as low as yields are, are higher than they are in most other developed countries. A foreign investor picks up a yield spread in Treasurys versus their own sovereigns, plus the fact that if the dollar is going to continue rallying - and I think it will because it's a safe haven - then they get a currency translation gain as well.
Gary Shilling