If you look back historically at the post-WWII period on average, if you get a 100-basis-point increase in Fed funds, the spillover to the ten-year is only 35 basis points, and 25 basis points into the 30-year - it's a fairly small spillover effect.
Gary ShillingTreasurys, as low as yields are, are higher than they are in most other developed countries. A foreign investor picks up a yield spread in Treasurys versus their own sovereigns, plus the fact that if the dollar is going to continue rallying - and I think it will because it's a safe haven - then they get a currency translation gain as well.
Gary ShillingIf someone loves you, they can fall out of love with you but they're probably going to keep fearing you. That's where we are with [Donald] Trump.
Gary ShillingThe Fed wants to raise rates because they've been yelling and screaming about it. They've been crying wolf for so long that their credibility is shot, and I think they feel they need to.
Gary ShillingOPEC production went from 30 million barrels a day to 33 million. They flooded the market, and it's lost them a lot of money. Look at the Saudis: they just floated a $17.5 billion debt offering, they earlier borrowed $10 billion from a group of international banks; they're selling part of Aramco - they're desperate for money.
Gary Shilling