If you look back historically at the post-WWII period on average, if you get a 100-basis-point increase in Fed funds, the spillover to the ten-year is only 35 basis points, and 25 basis points into the 30-year - it's a fairly small spillover effect.

[Niccolò] Machiavelli said it's better to be feared than to be loved.

Bloomberg TVThe one thing I think is likely to happen under either candidate is massive fiscal stimulus. You have so many voters in Western Europe and North America who've had no real income growth for over 10 years, and they are, in the words of Howard Beale, "Mad as hell and not going to take it anymore."

Despite the recent conviction of many that we're headed back to inflation, I think deflation remains the more likely prospect. You've just got too much excess capacity in the world.

One of the things I think is very likely is that with the prospects of robust fiscal stimulus in response to voters mad as hell, the Fed is going to be in there with helicopter money. In other words, they're going to be buying whatever the Treasury issues. They're not going to, in effect, advocate strong fiscal stimulus and then not finance it. And that's helicopter money.

Investors aren't willing to accept the idea that we're in an era of lower returns.

Let's say [Donald] Trump wins. Is Congress going to let him build a wall on the Mexican border? I don't think so.