Despite the recent conviction of many that we're headed back to inflation, I think deflation remains the more likely prospect. You've just got too much excess capacity in the world.

Investors aren't willing to accept the idea that we're in an era of lower returns.

OPEC production went from 30 million barrels a day to 33 million. They flooded the market, and it's lost them a lot of money. Look at the Saudis: they just floated a $17.5 billion debt offering, they earlier borrowed $10 billion from a group of international banks; they're selling part of Aramco - they're desperate for money.

The Fed wants to raise rates because they've been yelling and screaming about it. They've been crying wolf for so long that their credibility is shot, and I think they feel they need to.

[Donald Trump] is so unpredictable that foreigners are going to look around and say "boy, we've got to head for the safe havens." And one of the safe havens is Treasurys and [another is] the dollar.

Despite the recent conviction of many that we're headed back to inflation, I think deflation remains the more likely prospect. You've just got too much excess capacity in the world.

Treasurys, as low as yields are, are higher than they are in most other developed countries. A foreign investor picks up a yield spread in Treasurys versus their own sovereigns, plus the fact that if the dollar is going to continue rallying - and I think it will because it's a safe haven - then they get a currency translation gain as well.