Treasurys, as low as yields are, are higher than they are in most other developed countries. A foreign investor picks up a yield spread in Treasurys versus their own sovereigns, plus the fact that if the dollar is going to continue rallying - and I think it will because it's a safe haven - then they get a currency translation gain as well.
Gary ShillingTreasurys, as low as yields are, are higher than they are in most other developed countries.
Gary ShillingLet's say [Donald] Trump wins. Is Congress going to let him build a wall on the Mexican border? I don't think so.
Gary ShillingIf Hillary [Clinton] is elected, is she going to be able to jack up taxes with virtually no deductions, and include capital gains? Unless democrats have a clean sweep of Congress, I don't think that's going to happen either.
Gary ShillingOPEC production went from 30 million barrels a day to 33 million. They flooded the market, and it's lost them a lot of money. Look at the Saudis: they just floated a $17.5 billion debt offering, they earlier borrowed $10 billion from a group of international banks; they're selling part of Aramco - they're desperate for money.
Gary ShillingOne of the things I think is very likely is that with the prospects of robust fiscal stimulus in response to voters mad as hell, the Fed is going to be in there with helicopter money. In other words, they're going to be buying whatever the Treasury issues. They're not going to, in effect, advocate strong fiscal stimulus and then not finance it. And that's helicopter money.
Gary Shilling