I believe that there is an important kernel of truth in the idea that financial errors recur every other generation.
James Grant[T]he first bad bank loan was no doubt made around the time of the opening of the first bank.
James GrantThe art of banking is always to balance the risk of a run with the reward of a profit. The tantalizing factor in the equation is that riskier borrowers pay higher interest rates. Ultimate safety - a strongbox full of currency - would avail the banker nothing. Maximum risk - a portfolio of loans to prospective bankrupts at usurious interest rates - would invite disaster. A good banker safely and profitably treads the middle ground.
James GrantNothing beats a little cash in a bear market, of course, and the oldest form of cash is gold.
James GrantTo suppose that the value of a common stock is determined purely by a corporation's earnings discounted by the relevant interest rates and adjusted for the marginal tax rate is to forget that people have burned witches, gone to war on a whim, risen to the defense of Joseph Stalin and believed Orson Welles when he told them over the radio that the Martians had landed.
James Grant