If you are running a city you must focus on day-to-day problems.
Polling in a general election is pretty accurate, because turnout is usually high.
Most kids dont get to go their parents wedding.
I don't work hard enough. If I had worked harder I might have been prime minister.
The market is a brilliant system for the exchange of goods and services, but it doesn't protect the environment unless it's regulated, it doesn't train your workforce unless it's regulated, and it doesn't give you the long-term investment you want.
Yes, there are lots of individual exceptions. But no one has ever done a study about voting intention without ascertaining that the biggest determining factor is your income and your wealth.