The central idea in The Black Swan is that: rare events cannot be estimated from empirical observation since they are rare.
Nassim Nicholas TalebFurther, in writing, I feel corrupt and unethical if I have to look up a subject in a library as part of the writing itself. This acts as a filter--it is the only filter. If the subject is not interesting enough for me to look it up independently, for my own curiosity or purposes, and I have not done so before, then I should not be writing about it at all, period. It does not mean that libraries (physical and virtual) are not acceptable; it means that they should not be the source of any idea.
Nassim Nicholas TalebThe difference between technology and slavery is that slaves are fully aware that they are not free
Nassim Nicholas Taleb