Further, in writing, I feel corrupt and unethical if I have to look up a subject in a library as part of the writing itself. This acts as a filter--it is the only filter. If the subject is not interesting enough for me to look it up independently, for my own curiosity or purposes, and I have not done so before, then I should not be writing about it at all, period. It does not mean that libraries (physical and virtual) are not acceptable; it means that they should not be the source of any idea.

If you are in banking and lending, surprise outcomes are likely to be negative for you.

If my detractors knew me better they would hate me even more.

Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have—or don’t have—in their portfolio.

In economic life and history more generally, just about everything of consequence comes from black swans; ordinary events have paltry effects in the long term.

Anything organic requires some dose of variability so it can adapt all the time, and fixing things is not a good idea.

Weak men act to satisfy their needs, stronger men their duties.