Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have—or don’t have—in their portfolio.

A system, artificially stabilized, and of course you have hidden risks under the surface, and you don't know where the risks are.

My best definition of a nerd: someone who asks you to explain an aphorism

I don't know anyone on Wall Street who goes to work every day thinking of anything but how to increase their bonus.

The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history

If you sat with a pencil and jotted down all the decisions you've taken in the past week, or, if you could, over your lifetime, you would realize that almost all of them have had asymmetric payoff, with one side carrying a larger consequence than the other. You decide principally based on fragility, not probability. Or to rephrase, You decide principally based on fragility, not so much on True/False.

Don't read newspapers for the news (just for the gossip and, of course, profiles of authors). The best filter to know if the news matters is if you hear it in cafes, restaurants... or (again) parties.