But they never notice the following inconsistency: this so-called worst-case event, when it happened, exceeded the worst case at the time.

They think that intelligence is about noticing things are relevant (detecting patterns); in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns)

Ideas come and go, stories stay.

I'm in favour of religion as a tamer of arrogance. For a Greek Orthodox, the idea of God as creator outside the human is not God in God's terms. My God isn't the God of George Bush.

The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history

It does not matter how frequently something succeeds if failure is too costly to bear.

Procrastination is the soul rebelling against entrapment.