The central idea in The Black Swan is that: rare events cannot be estimated from empirical observation since they are rare.
Nassim Nicholas TalebYou exist if and only if you are free to do things without a visible objective, with no justification and, above all, outside the dictatorship of someone else's narrative.
Nassim Nicholas TalebI suspect the I.Q., SAT, and school grades are tests designed by nerds so they can get high scores in order to call each other intelligent...Smart and wise people who score low on IQ tests, or patently intellectually defective ones, like the former U.S. president George W. Bush, who score high on them (130), are testing the test and not the reverse.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb