The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has a simple heuristic. Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference
Nassim Nicholas TalebIt does not matter how frequently something succeeds if failure is too costly to bear.
Nassim Nicholas TalebEducation makes the wise slightly wiser, but it makes the fool vastly more dangerous.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb