The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has a simple heuristic. Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference

I always remind myself that what one observes is at best a combination of variance and returns, not just returns.

I don't read the papers; I stopped reading the papers. I read the papers only during periods of crisis, and I think papers are too long on a regular day and too short days when we have a crisis.

When you write, you don't have the social constraints of having people in front of you, so you talk about abstract matters.

Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.

What I learned on my own I still remember

You exist if and only if you are free to do things without a visible objective, with no justification and, above all, outside the dictatorship of someone else's narrative.