The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has a simple heuristic. Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference

I want to live happily in a world I don’t understand.

Probability and expectation are not the same. Its probability and probability times the pay off.

It's not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. If possible, tease people who take themselves and their knowledge too seriously.

Never ask a trader if he is profitable: you can easily see it in his gesture and gait.

Stoicism is about the *domestication* of emotions, not their elimination.

In the United States large corporations control some members of Congress. All this does is delay the corporation’s funeral at our expense.