Financial institutions have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. Almost all banks are interrelated. So the financial ecology is swelling into gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic banks-when one fails, they all fall. We have moved from a diversified ecology of small banks, with varied lending policies, to a more homogeneous framework of firms that all resemble one another. True, we now have fewer failures, but when they occur... I shiver at the thought.
Nassim Nicholas TalebMuch of the research into humans' risk-avoidance machinery shows that it is antiquated and unfit for the modern world; it is made to counter repeatable attacks and learn from specifics. If someone narrowly escapes being eaten by a tiger in a certain cave, then he learns to avoid that cave.
Nassim Nicholas Talebtrue humility is when you can surprise yourself more than others; the rest is either shyness or good marketing
Nassim Nicholas TalebProbability and expectation are not the same. Its probability and probability times the pay off.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb