There are secrets to our world that only practice can reveal, and no opinion or analysis will ever capture in full.

A system, artificially stabilized, and of course you have hidden risks under the surface, and you don't know where the risks are.

Work hard, not in grunt work, but in chasing such opportunities and maximizing exposure to them. This makes living in big cities invaluable because you increase the odds of serendipitous encounters-you gain exposure to the envelope of serendipity.

Don't disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We don't understand their logic. Don't pollute the planet. Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific 'evidence'.

The track record of economists in predicting events is monstrously bad. It is beyond simplification; it is like medieval medicine.

Realism is punishing. Probabilistic skepticism is worse.

Rationalism crashes in the tails.