Redundancy is ambiguous because it seems like a waste if nothing unusual happens. Except that something unusual happens-usually .
Nassim Nicholas TalebIf you roll dice, you know that the odds are one in six that the dice will come up on a particular side. So you can calculate the risk. But, in the stock market, such computations are bull - you don't even know how many sides the dice have!
Nassim Nicholas TalebIt might be useful to be able to predict war. But tension does not necessarily lead to war, but often to peace and to denouement.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb