The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has a simple heuristic. Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference
Nassim Nicholas TalebI remind myself of Einstein's remark that common sense is nothing but a collection of misconceptions acquired by age 18.
Nassim Nicholas TalebThe fragile wants tranquility, the antifragile grows from disorder, and the robust doesn't care too much.
Nassim Nicholas TalebIf there is something in nature you don't understand, odds are it makes sense in a deeper way that is beyond your understanding. So there is a logic to natural things that is much superior to our own. Just as there is a dichotomy in law: 'innocent until proven guilty' as opposed to 'guilty until proven innocent', let me express my rule as follows: what Mother Nature does is rigorous until proven otherwise; what humans and science do is flawed until proven otherwise.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb