Probability is not about the odds, but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome, cause, or motive.

I'm a capitalist but one who is smallist and localist, and who favours businesses where owners are still in charge.

Prediction, not narration, is the real test of our understanding of the world.

Don't read newspapers for the news (just for the gossip and, of course, profiles of authors). The best filter to know if the news matters is if you hear it in cafes, restaurants... or (again) parties.

You will get the most attention from those who hate you. No friend, no admirer and no partner will flatter you with as much curiosity.

The central idea in The Black Swan is that: rare events cannot be estimated from empirical observation since they are rare.

The track record of economists in predicting events is monstrously bad. It is beyond simplification; it is like medieval medicine.