The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history

An elephant is vastly more efficient, metabolically, than a mouse. It's the same for a megacity as opposed to a village. But an elephant can break a leg very easily, whereas you can toss a mouse out of a window and it'll be fine. Size makes you fragile.

Weak men act to satisfy their needs, stronger men their duties.

What is nonmeasurable and nonpredictable will remain nonmeasurable and nonpredictable ... no matter how much hate mail I get.

You find peace by coming to terms with what you don't know.

When an investor focuses on short-term investments, he or she is observing the variability of the portfolio, not the returns - in short, being fooled by randomness.

I'd rather have the market tell us what - I'd rather have events precipitate events, rather than just sit there like passive people in Washington.