It's not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. If possible, tease people who take themselves and their knowledge too seriously.

Never take advice from anyone in a tie. They'll bankrupt you. Don't ask a general for advice on war, and don't ask a broker for advice on money.

The fool generalizes the particular; the nerd particularizes the general; some do both; and the wise does neither

It might be useful to be able to predict war. But tension does not necessarily lead to war, but often to peace and to denouement.

People who forecast simply because "that's my job," knowing pretty well that their forecast is ineffectual, are not what I would call ethical. What they do is no different from repeating lies simply because "it's my job."

I'm a capitalist but one who is smallist and localist, and who favours businesses where owners are still in charge.

The track record of economists in predicting events is monstrously bad. It is beyond simplification; it is like medieval medicine.