Nobody wants a prediction that the future will be more or less like the present, even if that is, statistically speaking, an excellent prediction.
Nathan MyhrvoldIf you have two steaks, one that's an inch thick, one that's 2 inches thick, how much longer does the thicker one need to cook? It's four times as long. It goes roughly like the square. How come cookbooks don't tell you that?
Nathan MyhrvoldWithin NASA, the shuttle is perhaps the least-groundbreaking project. Recall that Apollo was about creating brand-new technologies that did something unprecedented - putting men on the moon. The shuttle is, by comparison, a relic designed to make going into orbit routine.
Nathan Myhrvold