Recall that people like to do what most people think it is right to do; recall too that people like to do what most people actually do.

Maybe you'll take the cash out. So a credit card company or a bank that goes into the business of saying we're going to be the broker, we're going to sell you a mortgage that you're going to be able to pay off, we're going to help you reduce your credit card debt, we're going to help you save for retirement, we're going to put you into mutual funds that have low fees rather than high fees.

Most economists, including me, agree that longevity insurance would make sense for a lot of people.

One simple step firms can take is make sure that people that are getting paid a lot of money, say more than a million or two, that a big chunk of that money is deferred. That's going to change the whole ballgame.

So the world is much more correlated than we give credit to. And so we see more of what Nassim Taleb calls "black swan events" - rare events happen more often than they should because the world is more correlated.

A good rule of thumb is to assume that everything matters.

I think the people who've been the most overconfident in our business in the last decade have been the people that called themselves risk managers.