Beware leverage in all its forms. Borrowers - individual, corporate, or government - should always match fund their liabilities against the duration of their assets. Borrowers must always remember that capital markets can be extremely fickle, and that it is never safe to assume a maturing loan can be rolled over. Even if you are unleveraged, the leverage employed by others can drive dramatic price and valuation swings; sudden unavailability of leverage in the economy may trigger an economic downturn.
Seth KlarmanSuccessful investors tend to be unemotional, allowing the greed and fear of others to play into their hands. By having confidence in their own analysis and judgement, they respond to market forces not with blind emotion but with calculated reason. Successful investors, for example, demonstrate caution in frothy markets and steadfast conviction in panicky ones. Indeed, the very way an investor views the market and itโs price fluctuations is a key factor in his or her ultimate investment success or failure.
Seth KlarmanWhen you buy bargains and they become better bargains, it is easy to start to question yourself, which can impair your judgement. Real or imagined concerns about client redemptions, employee defections can greatly influence behavior away from rational.
Seth KlarmanAs value investors, our business is to buy bargains that financial market theory says do not exist. We've delivered great returns to our clients for a quarter century-a dollar invested at inception in our largest fund is now worth over 94 dollars, a 20% net compound return. We have achieved this not by incurring high risk as financial theory would suggest, but by deliberately avoiding or hedging the risks that we identified.
Seth KlarmanUltimately, nothing should be more important to investors than the ability to sleep soundly at night.
Seth KlarmanThe government can reasonably rely on debt ratings when it forms programs to lend money to buyers of otherwise unattractive debt instruments.
Seth KlarmanThe government can always rescue the markets or interfere with contract law whenever it deems convenient with little or no apparent cost. (Investors believe this now and, worse still, the government believes it as well. We are probably doomed to a lasting legacy of government tampering with financial markets and the economy, which is likely to create the mother of all moral hazards. The government is blissfully unaware of the wisdom of Friedrich Hayek: "The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.")
Seth Klarman