A commodity doesn't have the same characteristics as a security, characteristics that allow for analysis. Other than a recent sale or appreciation due to inflation, analyzing the current or future worth of a commodity is nearly impossible.
Seth KlarmanAnalysts recommendations may not produce good results. In part this is due to the pressure placed on these analysts to recommend frequently rather than wisely.
Seth KlarmanSuccessful investors tend to be unemotional, allowing the greed and fear of others to play into their hands. By having confidence in their own analysis and judgement, they respond to market forces not with blind emotion but with calculated reason. Successful investors, for example, demonstrate caution in frothy markets and steadfast conviction in panicky ones. Indeed, the very way an investor views the market and itโs price fluctuations is a key factor in his or her ultimate investment success or failure.
Seth Klarman