There is an old saying, "How did you go bankrupt?" And the answer is, "Gradually, and then suddenly." The impending fiscal crisis in the United States will make its appearance in the same way.
Seth KlarmanIn the financial markets, however, the connection between a marketable security and the underlying business is not as clear-cut. For investors in a marketable security the gain or loss associated with the various outcomes is not totally inherent in the underlying business; it also depends on the price paid, which is established by the marketplace. The view that risk is dependent on both the nature of investments and on their market price is very different from that described by beta.
Seth KlarmanSuccessful investors like stocks better when theyโre going down. When you go to a department store or a supermarket, you like to buy merchandise on sale, but it doesnโt work that way in the stock market. In the stock market, people panic when stocks are going down, so they like them less when they should like them more. When prices go down, you shouldnโt panic, but itโs hard to control your emotions when youโre overextended, when you see your net worth drop in half and you worry that you wonโt have enough money to pay for your kidsโ college.
Seth KlarmanInvestors frequently benefit from making decisions with less than perfect knowledge and are well rewarded for bearing the risk of uncertainty. The time other investors spend delving into the last unanswered detail may cost them the chance to buy into situations at prices so low they offer a margin of safety despite the incomplete information
Seth Klarman