When I was a graduate student, estimating and interpreting distributed lags topped the agenda of macroeconomists and other applied economists.

There was a danger that skeptics and opponents would misread those likelihood ratio tests as rejections of an entire class of models, which of course they were not.

When I was a graduate student, estimating and interpreting distributed lags topped the agenda of macroeconomists and other applied economists.

The first and most optimistic response was complete rational expectations econometrics. A rational expectations equilibrium is a likelihood function. Maximize it.

Keynes was a very good economist. He was brilliant. He had wonderful insights. His work has inspired me many times.

I'm happy to say I am a Harrison-Kreps-Keynesian.

In the 1980s, there were occasions when it made sense to say, 'it is too difficult to maximize the likelihood function, and besides if we do, it will blow our model out of the water.