John Maynard Keynes essentially said, don't try and figure out what the market is doing. Figure out a business you understand, and concentrate.
Warren BuffettWhat you really want to do in investments is figure out what's important and knowable. If it's unimportant or unknowable you forget about it.
Warren BuffettManagers that always promise to 'make the numbers' will at some point be tempted to make up the numbers.
Warren Buffett