We have no reason to expect the quality of intuition to improve with the importance of the problem. Perhaps the contrary: high-stake problems are likely to involve powerful emotions and strong impulses to action.
Daniel KahnemanTo better avoid errors, you should talk to people who disagree with you and you should talk to people who are not in the same emotional situation you are.
Daniel KahnemanIn a rising market, enough of your bad ideas will pay off so that you'll never learn that you should have fewer ideas.
Daniel Kahneman