After a crisis we tell ourselves we understand why it happened and maintain the illusion that the world is understandable. In fact, we should accept the world is incomprehensible much of the time.

If there is time to reflect, slowing down is likely to be a good idea.

Economists think about what people ought to do. Psychologists watch what they actually do.

There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.

The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.

Clearly, the decision-making that we rely on in society is fallible. It's highly fallible, and we should know that.

The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved.