Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.

One thing we have lost, that we had in the past, is a sense of progress, that things are getting better. There is a sense of volatility, but not of progress.

One study found that people who just thought about watching their favorite movie actually raised their endorphin levels by 27 percent.

Knowing the importance of luck, you should be particularly suspicious when highly consistent patterns emerge from the comparison of successful and less successful firms. In the presence of randomness, regular patterns can only be mirages.

People who face a difficult question often answer an easier one instead, without realizing it.

People like leaders who look like they are dominant, optimistic, friendly to their friends, and quick on the trigger when it comes to enemies. They like boldness and despise the appearance of timidity and protracted doubt.

Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.