Courage is willingness to take the risk once you know the odds. Optimistic overconfidence means you are taking the risk because you don't know the odds. It's a big difference.

The brains of humans contain a mechanism that is designed to give priority to bad news.

People have little idea, by and large, of the investment world. They are convinced they have an advantage.

There is general agreement among researchers that nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not-and few of them do-are playing a game of chance.

Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.

The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.

Most people are highly optimistic most of the time.