Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.

Human beings cannot comprehend very large or very small numbers. It would be useful for us to acknowledge that fact.

The illusion of skill is not only an individual aberration; it is deeply ingrained in the culture of the [investment management] industry.

Organizations may be better able to tame optimism than individuals are.

Individual investors predictably flock to stocks in companies that are in the news.

There are domains in which expertise is not possible. Stock picking is a good example. And in long-term political strategic forecasting, it's been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.

Knowing the importance of luck, you should be particularly suspicious when highly consistent patterns emerge from the comparison of successful and less successful firms. In the presence of randomness, regular patterns can only be mirages.