Some achieve a reputation for great successes when in fact all they have done is take chances that reasonable people wouldn't take.

Intuitive diagnosis is reliable when people have a lot of relevant feedback. But people are very often willing to make intuitive diagnoses even when they're very likely to be wrong.

We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events.

However, optimism is highly valued, socially and in the market; people and firms reward the providers of dangerously misleading information more than they reward truth tellers. One of the lessons of the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession is that there are periods in which competition, among experts and among organizations, creates powerful forces that favor a collective blindness to risk and uncertainty.

If there is time to reflect, slowing down is likely to be a good idea.

If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.

Mental effort, I would argue, is relatively rare. Most of the time we coast.