We are often confident even when we are wrong, and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we are.

In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.

Economists think about what people ought to do. Psychologists watch what they actually do.

When people believe a conclusion is true, they are also very likely to believe arguments that appear to support it, even when these arguments are unsound.

Employers who violate rules of fairness are punished by reduced productivity, and merchants who follow unfair pricing policies can expect to lose sales.

If people are failing, they look inept. If people are succeeding, they look strong and good and competent. That's the 'halo effect.' Your first impression of a thing sets up your subsequent beliefs. If the company looks inept to you, you may assume everything else they do is inept.

True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes.