If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices.

We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events.

Except for some effects that I attribute mostly to age, my intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and the planning fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues.

Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it's interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible. You can make predictions, and a year later people won't remember them.

Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.

Alternative descriptions of the same reality evoke different emotions and different associations.

We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.