Knowing the importance of luck, you should be particularly suspicious when highly consistent patterns emerge from the comparison of successful and less successful firms. In the presence of randomness, regular patterns can only be mirages.
Daniel KahnemanClearly, the decision-making that we rely on in society is fallible. It's highly fallible, and we should know that.
Daniel KahnemanThere is general agreement among researchers that nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not-and few of them do-are playing a game of chance.
Daniel Kahneman