Most of the moments of our life - and I calculated, you know, the psychological present is said to be about three seconds long; that means that, you know, in a life there are about 600 million of them; in a month, there are about 600,000 - most of them don't leave a trace.

This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.

The illusion of skill is not only an individual aberration; it is deeply ingrained in the culture of the [investment management] industry.

One of the problems with expertise is that people have it in some domains and not in others.

If you care about being thought credible and intelligent, do not use complex language where simpler language will do.

An executive might have a very strong intuition that a given product has promise, without considering the probability that a rival is already ahead in developing the same product.

An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.