You should expect little or nothing from Wall Street stock pickers who hope to be more accurate than the market in predicting the future of prices. And you should not expect much from pundits making long-term forecasts.

We are often confident even when we are wrong, and an objective observer is more likely to detect our errors than we are.

You should not take your intuitions at face value.

Banks are run by executives, and executives protect themselves, and that does not always mean that banks are going to behave rationally.

We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.

Hindsight bias makes surprises vanish.

Some achieve a reputation for great successes when in fact all they have done is take chances that reasonable people wouldn't take.