You should expect little or nothing from Wall Street stock pickers who hope to be more accurate than the market in predicting the future of prices. And you should not expect much from pundits making long-term forecasts.

We're generally overconfident in our opinions and our impressions and judgments.

An investment said to have an 80% chance of success sounds far more attractive than one with a 20% chance of failure. The mind can't easily recognize that they are the same.

... sometimes when you are asked a question that is difficult, the mind doesn't stay silent if it doesn't have the answer. The mind produces something, and what it produces very characteristically is the answer to an easier but related question.

We have a very narrow view of what is going on.

We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events.

Often, the most enjoyable part of an activity is the anticipation.