To know whether you can trust a particular intuitive judgment, there are two questions you should ask: Is the environment in which the judgment is made sufficiently regular to enable predictions from the available evidence? The answer is yes for diagnosticians, no for stock pickers. Do the professionals have an adequate opportunity to learn the cues and the regularities? The answer here depends on the professionals' experience and on the quality and speed with which they discover their mistakes.
Daniel KahnemanNegotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult because they require an allocation of losses. People tend to be much more easygoing when they bargain over an expanding pie.
Daniel KahnemanIn essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures.
Daniel KahnemanQuestion: So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market? Answer: "They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen."
Daniel Kahneman