There is general agreement among researchers that nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not-and few of them do-are playing a game of chance.

The effort invested in 'getting it right' should be commensurate with the importance of the decision.

That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.

Policy makers, like most people, normally feel that they already know all the psychology and all the sociology they are likely to need for their decisions. I don't think they are right, but that's the way it is.

Negotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult because they require an allocation of losses. People tend to be much more easygoing when they bargain over an expanding pie.

We have a very narrow view of what is going on.

We can't live in a state of perpetual doubt, so we make up the best story possible and we live as if the story were true.