The world has produced about 1 trillion barrels of oil since the start of the industry in the nineteenth century. Currently, it is thought that there are at least 5 trillion barrels of petroleum resources, of which 1.4 trillion is sufficiently developed and technically and economically accessible.

So the major obstacle to the development of new supplies is not geology but what happens above ground: international affairs, politics, investment and technology.

Cycles of shortage and surplus characterize the entire history of oil.

The North Sea was supposed to run out in the 1980s. Then in the 1990s. And now production is still on-line.

A premium in the oil price of somewhere between 10 to 15 dollars a barrel reflects this heightened anxiety.

The starting point for energy security today as it has always been is diversification of supplies and sources.

The Russians are turning east to the Chinese - to the Europeans' surprise. It always seemed to me that the relationship between Russia and China would shift from being based in Marx and Lenin to being based in oil and gas.