We experienced similiar fears in the 1880s, at the end of World War I and II. And we ran out in the 1970s.

But the key thing is that Iraq, while it's got very large oil reserves, has marginalized itself as an oil exporter and these days its exports are only about one tenth that of neighboring Saudi Arabia.

Cycles of shortage and surplus characterize the entire history of oil.

According to one study by the United States Geological survey, 86 percent of oil reserves in the United States are the result not of what is estimated at the time of discovery but of the revisions and additions that come with further development.

So the major obstacle to the development of new supplies is not geology but what happens above ground: international affairs, politics, investment and technology.

We experienced similiar fears in the 1880s, at the end of World War I and II. And we ran out in the 1970s.

To meet the energy challenge requires the most important energy of all - human creativity. That's the real prize.