We experienced similiar fears in the 1880s, at the end of World War I and II. And we ran out in the 1970s.

People always underestimate the impact of technology. To give you an example: In the 1970s the frontier for offshore development was 200 meters, today it is 4,000 meters.

In a couple of years, the Chinese will be seen as regular participants in international industry. Their companies have to report to shareholders as well as to the Chinese authorities. They need to make money, they have to be efficient.

But eventually it's a question of access: Getting access to fields is on top of the oil companies' agenda. We see a substantial build-up of supply occurring over the coming years.

We experienced similiar fears in the 1880s, at the end of World War I and II. And we ran out in the 1970s.

It's extraordinary how inventive one can be with ethanol right now.

So the major obstacle to the development of new supplies is not geology but what happens above ground: international affairs, politics, investment and technology.