This has a lot to do with the unrest in Nigeria, but also with the production loss after the hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, the decline in Iraq since the 2003 war, and the decline in Venezuelan output since 2002.

According to one study by the United States Geological survey, 86 percent of oil reserves in the United States are the result not of what is estimated at the time of discovery but of the revisions and additions that come with further development.

The world has produced about 1 trillion barrels of oil since the start of the industry in the nineteenth century. Currently, it is thought that there are at least 5 trillion barrels of petroleum resources, of which 1.4 trillion is sufficiently developed and technically and economically accessible.

The North Sea was supposed to run out in the 1980s. Then in the 1990s. And now production is still on-line.

So the major obstacle to the development of new supplies is not geology but what happens above ground: international affairs, politics, investment and technology.

Cycles of shortage and surplus characterize the entire history of oil.

To meet the energy challenge requires the most important energy of all - human creativity. That's the real prize.