Smart tech investor thinks about: a) future product roadmap, b) bottoms-up market size & growth, c) talent and skill of team. Essentially you are valuing things that have not yet happened, and the likelihood of the CEO and team being able to make them happen. Finance people find this appalling, but investors who do this well can make a lot of money.
Marc AndreessenGoogle is working on self-driving cars, and they seem to work. People are so bad at driving cars that computers don't have to be that good to be much better.
Marc AndreessenThe difference between a vision and a hallucination is that other people can see the vision.
Marc Andreessen