A good rule of thumb is as follows: If the numbers come from somebody wearing a tie (Wall Street economist or analyst, industry public relations department, captive think tank academic and so on), you ought to be very skeptical. By design messages from these people are intended to move markets, move merchandise and/or move public policy and are not a comment on the state of the physical universe.
Nassim Nicholas TalebModernity has replaced ethics with legalese, and the law can be gamed with a good lawyer.
Nassim Nicholas TalebNever think that lack of variability is stability. Don't confuse lack of volatility with stability, ever.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb