Probability and expectation are not the same. Its probability and probability times the pay off.
Nassim Nicholas TalebIf you have more than one reason to do something (choose a doctor or veterinarian, hire a gardener or an employee, marry a person, go on a trip), just donโt do it. It does not mean that one reason is better than two, just that by invoking more than one reason you are trying to convince yourself to do something. Obvious decisions (robust to error) require no more than a single reason.
Nassim Nicholas TalebThe track record of economists in predicting events is monstrously bad. It is beyond simplification; it is like medieval medicine.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb