Forecasting by bureaucrats tends to be used for anxiety relief rather than for adequate policy making.
Nassim Nicholas TalebThe fool generalizes the particular; the nerd particularizes the general; some do both; and the wise does neither
Nassim Nicholas TalebAcademia is to knowledge what prostitution is to love; close enough on the surface but, to the non-sucker, not exactly the same thing.
Nassim Nicholas TalebWhen an investor focuses on short-term investments, he or she is observing the variability of the portfolio, not the returns - in short, being fooled by randomness.
Nassim Nicholas TalebIf you have more than one reason to do something (choose a doctor or veterinarian, hire a gardener or an employee, marry a person, go on a trip), just donโt do it. It does not mean that one reason is better than two, just that by invoking more than one reason you are trying to convince yourself to do something. Obvious decisions (robust to error) require no more than a single reason.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb