It might be useful to be able to predict war. But tension does not necessarily lead to war, but often to peace and to denouement.

You want failures to be small and informational. Silicon Valley does very well. It knows how to use failure as a tool for improvement.

Scepticism is effortful and costly. It is better to be sceptical about matters of large consequences, and be imperfect, foolish and human in the small and the aesthetic.

Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have—or don’t have—in their portfolio.

Being an economist is the least ethical profession, closer to charlatanism than any science.

Never, never, never think - that's one lesson you should have in life. Never think that lack of variability is stability.

I'd rather have the market tell us what - I'd rather have events precipitate events, rather than just sit there like passive people in Washington.