If you sat with a pencil and jotted down all the decisions you've taken in the past week, or, if you could, over your lifetime, you would realize that almost all of them have had asymmetric payoff, with one side carrying a larger consequence than the other. You decide principally based on fragility, not probability. Or to rephrase, You decide principally based on fragility, not so much on True/False.

People are much less interested in what you are trying to show them than what you are trying to hide.

The imagination of the genius vastly surpasses his intellect; the intellect of the academic vastly surpasses his imagination

true humility is when you can surprise yourself more than others; the rest is either shyness or good marketing

The problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists than books on birds written by birds and books on ornithologists written by birds

I'd rather have the market tell us what - I'd rather have events precipitate events, rather than just sit there like passive people in Washington.

Most so-called writers keep writing and writing with the hope, some day, to find something to say.