The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake.

Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things.

You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects.

When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it.

I think people feel like there are all these things in our lives that we don't really have control over.

The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.

Voters' memories will fade some.