The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake.

The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.

I think a lot of journal articles should really be blogs.

Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don't have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically.

Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake.

If I had a spreadsheet on my computer, it looked like I was busy.